Voters just don't care that Maryland botched the Obamacare rollout

Originally published in the Baltimore Business Journal

MPPI in the News Sarah Gantz | Reporter - Baltimore Business Journal Oct 16, 2014

Here's how much of a nonissue Maryland's botched health exchange is in this year's gubernatorial race: The Annapolis polling firm OpinionWorks hasn't bothered to ask voters about it.

“We've asked twice about that among Democratic primary voters; we have not asked in the general election under the theory that it's old news," said OpinionWorks President Steve Raabe.

“We haven't sensed or felt it would swing votes beyond the base Republican voters," he added.

OpinionWorks' most recent poll, conducted for the Baltimore Sun, shows Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown ahead by a 7-point lead over Republican candidate Larry Hogan. Hogan is attempting to pull ahead in part by zeroing in on the exchange. Brown was in charge of the exchange and Hogan argues its laundry list of problems calls into question Brown's leadership capabilities.

But regardless of how people feel about the exchange — whose website performed so poorly it was scrapped and rebuilt using Connecticut's model— analysts say it's not an issue that will sway the election.

“It's a legitimate criticism," said Marc Kilmer, a senior fellow at the Maryland Public Policy Institute. “I don't think it's Hogan's fault that the public doesn't necessarily understand or isn't concerned about it."

That's partly because of how far left Maryland leans, Kilmer said. The federal Affordable Care Act, which set up the exchanges, is widely accepted among Democrats, regardless of the problems states have encountered.

To win the election, Hogan would need to cut deep into the state's Democratic base. The health exchange story may appeal to independent voters and more conservative democrats, but is not a strong enough sell to get them to jump ship, Raabe said.

“It's not the kind of wedge that will sway core Democrats," he said.

That doesn't mean Hogan's approach is in vain.

Hogan built his campaign on the idea of change and OpinionWorks' polling shows many voters are discontent with the state's current path.

“If he can galvanize those who think things are on the wrong track, that can help him, given how he's positioned his candidacy," Raabe said.

Sarah covers health care, higher education, biotech and technology.