The Maryland Public Policy Institute has published an excellent analysis by Jeff Hooke and Gabriel Michael. It's one of the best things they've put out, and anybody interested in the project should read the whole thing. It's less than five pages. Aside from the financial analysis the report is a good scorecard of players and events so far. The headline is that State Center as now structured would cost taxpayers $127 million when you count all the giveaways -- tax credits, free land, free parking garage, inflated rent etc.

Some other highlights:

To promote the first phase, the state has, among other items, (1) agreed to pay an above-market rental rate— about $10 per square foot extra—on its new office space, (2) construct a parking garage financed by $33 million in sState bonds, and (3) rent the land to the developer for a nominal amount. Additionally, Baltimore City will contribute infrastructure, (4) including about $15 million worth of construction supported by tax increment financing (TIF) bonds.

Because the private developers are so thinly capitalized, the state must pay rent even if Phase I’s completion is delayed. Otherwise, commercial debt financing is unavailable according to project-related documents.  This analysis assumes no cost overruns, although cost overruns
are not unusual in a project of this size.

We anticipate the private developers will invest little of their own money. Apart from the estimated subsidies, most of Phase 1 will be financed through commercial loans backed by the state’s long-term office space lease.